JOST A MON

The idle ramblings of a Jack of some trades, Master of none

Yesterday, 12 May, was the bicentenary of the birth of Edward Lear, humorist and artist. I happened rather idly to search for some of his limericks (my son's studying the form at school these days) and learned this fact. I'm not a particular fan of Lear's limericks - the fact that his last lines usually ended the same as his first always felt like a bit of a cop-out - but I was pleased to find out that he had travelled extensively in India, and (in keeping with my current fetish for random art) painted wonderful landscapes of the places he visited.

One of Lear's closest friends was Evelyn Baring, who became the Personal Secretary to the Viceroy, Lord Northbrook with whom also he was closely acquainted. Northbrook invited him to India in 1872 to tour the country and sketch it. Lear was eventually happy to do so, especially since his expenses would be covered by the government. But his initial plans went awry when he was unable to procure a berth to the subcontinent; enraged, he spent time in Corfu and Alexandria and delayed his trip to India till the following year.

He arrived in Bombay on 22 November 1873. He was to spend considerable time criss-crossing the country, sketching and painting furiously. He would visit parts as far apart as the Western Ghats and Kurseong, the deep South and up North. While he was generally a humorous traveller, willing to try any mode of transport, the exigencies of voyaging in India often reduced him to exhaustion ('O! Hateful Indian travel!') but a day spent painting would soon restore his mood.

He travelled on trains, ekkas (two-wheel horse-driven carts) and on dhoolies (covered litters) and jampans (a sedan chair also carried by men), and tonjons (another sedan-chair). He wrote:
The ekka trial was severe, - bumping, - leg cramping and end injuring, - yet better than I expected. At Bahadoorbad we changed to Dhoolies, - the first time of trial, and they are much more pleasant than I expected: - yet, after a time, the row of men, and the shaky movement bothers... The movement of a Jampan is much like that of a Dhooly, - but you have much more room. Only, when the men change the pole from one shoulder t'other, it seems as if they were about to pitch you over into space... Coolies undulating. Much discomfort at first.
He noted the enormous diversity of India - climatic and geographic, cultural and architectural, zoological and botanic. He felt the bitter cold in the hills in the winter, and the severe heat in the plains. In Malabar, he wrote that the 'heat was always great here, stuffy, puffy, muffy.' Amazed by the torrents of the rainy season, his servant asked him, 'Please sir, how many hundred Monsoons are there in India?' In the cold he had had to stand for hours drawing; the rains prevented him from painting at all.

But he ate heartily. 'We lunched in the broad shade of a great Neem tree, exactly like a fine Ash. Excellent leg of mutton, guinea-fowl's eggs, and cheese, besides sherry and water.' He did complain about the spiciness of the food: 'Heavenly potatoes have these people! the best of any out of old England. But the amount of pepper put into the food is hideous, and I have prohibited it henceforth.' He managed to find alcohol in every outpost of his travels, and drank so copiously that he himself was amazed: 'Good evans! if any of my old friends could know how much Beer and Brandy and Sherry this child conshumes, would they recognise me?'

While he was happy to meet Northbrook and Evelyn Barings, he evidently disliked the pompousness of Viceregal life. Likewise, in Calcutta, socialising with the high society was a strain. 'I believe Viceregal life will bore me to death... No rest in Hustlefussabad.' He loved the solitude of the dak bungalows where he preferred to stay during his travels. 'Happiness and quiet appear to me to exist nowhere in India save in Dak Bungalows: - there they certainly do.' In the Himalayas, he wrote: 'the fact of being thus in this house, and well fed, and so comfortable, - in such a locality - a sort of nowhere - on the borders of India and Thibet, - and of being totally unmolested, and with not even bolt on the doors, - seems a semicircle, and is well worth the contemplation of pipkins, pumpkins, poodles and pearly philosophers.'

Lear's Nonsense verses were immensely popular in India. Of course, this is not to say the local population knew any of them. Rather, the colonial kids - living in their bubbles - knew them and even studied them at school. His interaction with Indians appears to have been somewhat limited. He learned a few Hindi and Tamil words. He could ask the way ('Rusta ke hai?') and he was happy to eat 'Bhat' and curry, and in Madras, could say 'Please endewennum?' He expressed regret that he hadn't bothered to learn the 'Lingo' before arriving in India.

He noted the pompous, officious English of the natives: 'Positively, and without the slightest exaggeration, this Railway nuisance of want of punctuality is becoming insufferably unbearable!' He was surprised that the foreign language was spoke widely in India, even in mofussil towns. And he wondered if there was any point in Indian children being taught in a purely English medium to a purely English syllabus. 'Hear upper class read Henry V, and they were examined in Ivanhoe. Is there, or is there not time thrown away in this sort of learning?' 

He spent 14 months in India and upon return to England even considered returning. But Northbrook resigned as Viceroy in 1876, and that put paid to any such thoughts Lear had had.

Edward Lear, Study of an Indigo Macaw, now known as Lear’s Macaw (Anodorhynchus leari), watercolor on paper (Houghton Library, MS Typ 55.9 (22))
Lear's Macaw (Houghton Library)

Mountain pass, Lucknow.

Watercolour of Benares.

Kanchenjunga from Darjeeling (National Museum, Cardiff).
View of Gwalior.


Taj Mahal. (Houghton Library/Harvard University)

References

Vidya Dehejia, Allen Staley, Impossible Picturesqueness: Edward Lear's Indian Watercolours, 1873-1875. Columbia University Press, 1989.

Maddy's Ramblings blog, Edward Lear at 'The Summer Isle of Eden', September 2010.





Nov 25, 2010

George Magnus at Lunch

UBS organised a lunchtime session yesterday with George Magnus, their Senior Economic Advisor, and author of the recent Uprising: Will Emerging Markets Shape or Shake the World Economy. While Mr Magnus spoke, several investment managers nibbled delicately on Poached and smoked Loch Duart salmon rillete with buckler sorrel, Classic lamb navarin with autumn root vegetables and ratte potato puree, finishing off with White and dark chocolate mousse with chocolate sable, and some coffee. Magnus himself had to pass on his starter, barely got into his main course, and smacked his lips only once upon the dessert.

The question he sought to answer in his book was its subtitle: ‘Will Emerging Markets shake or shape the world economy?’

He broke up the prognosis into 3 indicators:

1. Demographic change: while many Emerging Market (EM) countries are aging rapidly, others (e.g. India, Indonesia, Turkey) are having a boost in working age populations that will continue to last over the next 10-20 years, and can provide a big increase in growth and productivity if they are all gainfully employed. If they aren’t employed, of course, there can be serious social problems.

2. Technological catch-up in EM: some EM countries attain excellence in some aspects of technology (e.g. green tech in China, biotech in India, …). But there isn’t that depth of cultural and social infrastructure that enables them to consistently beat the developed world at all aspects of technical prowess. The catch-up means – for the most part – that the revenues will likely continue to flow into the developed market countries that produce most of the technical knowhow.

3. Climate change: while the worst affected countries by climate change are all EM, they will possibly spend large amounts to develop infrastructure to resist the worst of its effects.

The EM world has developed its manufacturing capacity to supply a world growth rate of about 6% p.a, which was the sort of growth seen in the two decades before the credit crunch. If world growth slows, then this overcapacity can lead to economic problems in the EM as well. And if developed world begins to save more, EM needs to spend more, otherwise we will end up with de-globalisation, protectionism, … As Magnus points out, despite noises at G20 meetings supporting globalisation and open markets, there has been a trend in protectionist measures over past two/three years already impacting about 2% of world trade.

The Chinese seem to understand that they have a part to play in the rebalancing of the world economy, but whether they will actually do anything other than mouth platitudes at 5-year plan announcements remains to be seen.

I got a copy of his book (signed, but not addressed to me) and stepped back into the cold streets of the City. At that same time, another demographic challenge was revealing itself. Students had taken to the streets of London too - only they were protesting increases in their tuition fees as part of UK's fiscal austerity. It's a sad truth: the babyboomers have enjoyed a long, long boom, and will continue to reap its dividends long into retirement, while their children and grandchildren face years of unemployment and relative indigence.

The generational struggle can only get worse.

Oct 25, 2010

Warming

One of the advantages of working at a company with a strong bent towards sustainable and responsible investing is that we can get to hear of interesting products and innovative outfits that our company might want to invest in. We also get to listen to interesting speakers once in a while. The most recent interesting speaker was Professor Chris Rapley, chief Mugwump of the Science Museum, and head honcho of the British Antarctic Survey.

He came to talk to us about Climate Change, the facts and the interpretations, the factions and the policking. A good time was had by all.

Here's a quick summary. The good professor pointed out that

  1. the facts about global warming are not in dispute, but only (mis)interpretations by various vested interests.
  2. even those who supposedly agree with global warming, e.g. Greens, do not necessarily support the hard choices required to lessen the impact of greenhouse gases (e.g. nuclear power).
  3. both parties - Deniers and Believers - often have identical rhetoric as regards solutions, but will just not listen to each other because of fundamental biases.
  4. energy costs are roughly 5% of world GDP because gas/petroleum is so cheap; any replacement available now will require maybe 20% of world GDP to provide the same amount of energy, so unless radically cheaper methodologies appear, there's little possibility to switch out of polluting fuels.
  5. to get public attention to the problem, it's not enough for scientists to talk loudly and slowly as if to slow foreigners, but to get public figures involved in communicating the issues.
  6. people need to think outside of their own immediate experience to realise that 'average rising temperatures' doesn't mean that temperatures will be rising everywhere: last winter was colder than the average in Western Europe and the eastern seaboard of the US, but at the same time, most of the rest of the planet was having much warmer times.
I asked him if there were times in the Earth's history when global average temperatures / carbon dioxide concentrations were higher than they are today. He said shocks similar to our own effusions (about a trillion tons of CO2 since the dawn of the industrial age) have occurred before. For instance, about 65 million years ago, there was a supervolcanic eruption somewhere in Siberia that released similar amounts of greenhouse gases, resulting in spikes in global temperatures that lasted several thousand years. That fact by itself, he said, should convince anyone who denies that today's CO2 levels pose no warming threat. The recovery from those temperatures, too, took longer than human timescales, so we shouldn't expect to get out of this unscathed. The societal tensions and pressures alone will be beyond anything we've encountered before.

All in all, an intellectually enlightening and emotionally depressing presentation.

Jul 24, 2010

Examination

What a lovely summer we're having. One should be out and about, having the occasional Pimm's to relax, and possibly taking in the gorgeousness of the English countryside while one's at it. Instead, one is sitting at home surrounded by thick books on regulation, accountancy, large-and-small-economics, and basic statistics.

After around 5.75 years in the financial industry, I have finally decided to take the test that is the basis for certification by the Financial Services Authority as an Approved Person. Whilst I was a lowly Quantitative Person, I had no real need for this qualification: I wasn't directly managing anyone's money. Pension funds, in other words, woke daily with tra-la-las on their ledgers, and central bankers congratulated each other on having, in me, a swot who could do them no harm.

Now, though, I'm expected to shoulder the burden of investment responsibility. I am no longer only a mathematical number-cruncher. I am to be an asset manager. I need to be Approved.

And so, in the midst of the finest summer London's had in years, I am behind closed doors, mumbling annuity formulae and pondering the differences between preference and ordinary shares. Before the middle of August, I will have acronyms coming out of my ears, and I'll be able to tell you the difference between a Lorenz curve and a pie-chart.

Woe, that is to say, is me.

Jul 4, 2010

Not A Drop To Drink

Now that we've had about two weeks of great sunshine, it appears that the country's reservoirs are running out of water. The causation is not as cut-and-dry as I make it out in the previous sentence - the first five months of this year produced less rainfall than expected. Any moment now we'll have hosepipe bans, and people taking baths together to save water.

Sex-y.

While the sun-starved natives of this land flock to the beaches, those of Asian or African persuasion stick to the shade. We understand at a subliminal level the power of the sun, and we avoid stepping out during the hottest hours. Or, if we do, we wear enormous hats and carry floppy fans.

We are wimps, though. The temperature in London recently touched 31 degrees Celsius, positively balmy compared to the searing heat of Delhi that I spent many years in. I didn't think twice before stepping out to do whatever I needed to even in 45 degrees. Without a hat. Or sunscreen. Or shades. Or even a bottle of water. Here, after spending scarcely twenty minutes in the sun, I begin to feel parched, and shortly thereafter, the beginnings of a headache.

Wimp.

My boy's summer vacations have started. Because he'll drive us batty if we spend more than a few hours with him (he needs people of his own age, I am informed), we have arranged a sports camp for him. The last time he spent a whole day out in the sun was a couple of weeks ago during his school's sport day. It was a hot (English) day, and most of the kids wilted, even him. I wonder how he'll take to five days of running about in the same heat.

We are told that the organisers will frequently hose down the kids. It's all a game, we hear.

So we'd better fervently hope that the hosepipe ban is not passed in the coming week.

In the first few days following the announcement of this edition of the Giant's Shoulders carnival, I received a few articles that appeared to strike off completely from the subject matter of the previous edition. To wit, I hoped that I might be able to do for geophysics what The Primate Diaries had done so ably for Charles Darwin. Over the ensuing days, though, I realised that there would not be such a concentration in one topic as before, and that this carnival would end up being as motley as its readers like to see. And so we have not only geophysics, but also (as we expect) evolutionary theory, palaeontology, quantum physics, astronomy, epidemiology, and a remarkable treasure-trove of resources for the science of food.

John Ray (National Portrait Gallery) Before Darwin could come up with On The Origin of Species, someone had to rigorously define what a 'species' is. Indeed, before Linnaeus, someone had to come up with a coherent system of biological classification. The man to do both these things was John Ray. The Renaissance Mathematicus discusses Ray's contributions in A Boy From Essex Who Made Good, pointing out that the first definition of 'species' in a strictly biological context was made by Ray, who published a magisterial study of the flora of Cambridgeshire with his student Francis Willughby. Whilst in many an account of the scientific explosion in the 17th and 18th centuries the hat is tipped towards astronomy and physics, The Renaissance Mathematicus insists that this is unfair towards the other sciences, which also advanced greatly during the period. And, he adds, in a fair world in which the history of scientific development were not defined as the history of physics [.] Ray would be acknowledged as standing on a level with Galileo or Newton, and not be regarded as some obscure biologist. [via gg]

Before he got busy usurping credit for the idea of vaccination, Edward Jenner was a keen ornithologist who took it upon himself to answer a question that had puzzled natural historians since antiquity. The Common Cuckoo had been known to be a nest parasite, that is, it would lay an egg in the nests of birds of other species; when the egg hatched, the chick would be raised by the unwitting hosts. It would be the sole survivor in that nest - all other fledglings and eggs would vanish. Who was responsible for their disappearance? That was the puzzle, and Edward Jenner was responsible for its resolution in a seminal paper published in 1788, as revealed by John in his A Historic Paper on Cuckoo Behavior posted at A DC Birding Blog. John adds that this paper was written long before Origin of Species, and the lack of a concept of natural selection is evident in several passages ... Instead, Jenner refers several times to nature's design, a concept that he does not have much elaboration.

Brian Switek has been notably prolific this past month, and so we have three paleontological contributions from him [all via gg]. First, in The Species that Domesticated Itself, he discusses Louis Leakey's attempt to identify the earliest hominid ancestor and the various blind alleys and tight spots he put himself in when he made hurried claims that this fossil or the other was exactly that ancestor. When in 1959 his wife Mary reconstructed a skull that appeared at once familiar (like an australopithecine) and alien, Leakey insisted that this was a new ancestral species that he dubbed Zinjanthropus. But dating techniques cast doubt on this conclusion. Brian adds: It seems that in Louis' view he and his team discovered our ancestors while everyone else was puttering about with evolutionary dead-ends. Once he had in mind that something was an ancestor, such as Zinj, he forcefully made the case that it was so, even if he had to abandon the very notion he had just popularized.

When a field of study is pursued in completely different ways by two camps of scientists, it shouldn't surprise us that major differences of opinion should arise between them, not only with respect to methodology but also in the conclusions and in the resulting establishment of a foundational theory. In the second of his posts featuring in this carnival, Riding the Bicycle posted at Laelaps, Brian Switek draws our attention to one such schism: geneticists in their laboratories were observing a slow-and-steady pace of evolutionary change, while palaeontologists were demonstrating that evolutionary change occurred in bursts followed by periods of stasis. Brian describes an attempt in 1980 to reconcile these two strands of science that has now come to be known as a palaeobiological synthesis, but laments that in many popular portrayals of evolution the contributions of palaeontology still take a backseat to genetics: thanks for the fossils, but don't worry so much about the theory next time. Authors seem grateful that there are fossils with transitional features to demonstrate the fact of evolution, yet evolution is still often presented as being a uniformitarian march from simple to complex.

The third piece from Brian is The Witness of the Deluge, in which he reveals how the discovery in 1725 of a supposedly humanoid skeleton was taken as definitive proof for the Biblical flood, and hence as validation by devout Christians of their faith. To the Swiss naturalist Jacob Johann Scheuchzer, the skeleton appeared to have, as Brian writes, a distinctively human appearance. The remains primarily consisted of a backbone and a semicircular skull with two eyes in it, and the fact that the remains of an antediluvian human had been discovered was so astounding that Scheuchzer described it the following year and again in his 1731 work Physica Sacra. He called it Homo diluvii testis, commonly translated as "Man, a witness of the Deluge." But, of course, it was no such thing. We'd like to say that the story proves yet again that it pays to keep one's dogmas out of one's science. But in the 18th century, naturalists were generally in agreement that terrestrial geology had been shaped by Noah's Flood. So why pillory poor Scheuchzer?

We take this opportunity to segue from palaeontology to geophysics, and what better way to do so than to learn how the California Thrasher led a biologist Joseph Grinnell to his understanding of climate change. In a three-part post at Ecographica, Johnny says that the first post introduces the idea of the 'ecological niche' and then discusses [Grinnell's] papers introducing the concept. The second post (linked at bottom of the first) details his life's work and then transitions to the third and final post in which Grinnell's research is used in modern studies.

What effect do the eccentricities of the Earth's orbit around the Sun have on its climate? I use 'eccentricity' not only in its mathematical meaning, although the elliptical orbit, as is well known, does contribute to seasonal climatic change. But this elliptical orbit rotates such that its axes shift over time; simultaneously, the Earth itself precesses; and, finally, the tilt of its axis away from the perpendicular changes in a long cycle. Together, these effects cause periodic ice-ages over 100,000 years, and these are called Milanković Cycles. The Russian science site Elementy explains the Cycles, and I took the liberty of translating the article into English at Sundry Translations and Other Tangentialia.

Next up, TonyB has a guest-post at Watts Up With That? a discussion of Little Ice Age Thermometers - History and Reliability. He reports on studies that examine the reliability of historic datasets [between 1660 and 1850] as a means for climate researchers to gaze into our past to see if there are any lessons for the present.

Moving onto Fundamental Physics now; we first present Eric Cavalcanti, in Quantum Communications, who tells us all that we need to know about the Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen paradox, non-locality and Bell's Theorem, all pillars of the foundations of quantum mechanics, in his article Can Quantum Mechanical Description of Physical Reality Be Considered Complete? He concludes The answer is still debatable, if what the question is asking is whether or not hidden variables underlying quantum phenomena really exist. But in search of an answer, EPR, Bohm and Bell have unearthed the astounding fact that our classically intuitive descriptions of a reality in which things exist independently of each other, interacting only locally to create the multiplicity of phenomena we experience, is demonstrably untenable.

Speaking of ghostly interactions and ephemerae, Jeremy's Edumacation 101 delves into the wondrous world of the neutrino in What Are Neutrinos And How Are They Detected? He points out that since the particles are electrically neutral and are not affected by strong force, the neutrinos pass through the Earth relatively unaffected. It can be said that during the daytime, solar neutrinos shine down on humanity, but during the night, these neutrinos shine up from underneath! More than fifty trillion solar neutrinos pass through the human body every second. So why are we all not totally fried? Read and find out.

While this is not really a blog-post, I'm inclined to be broadminded this festive season, and so I include a contribution from Surbhi Bhatia that explains the workings of Quantum Computers. She offers A 'Quantum' Leap posted at The Viewspaper.

Next, we have Jennifer Ouellette's Chamber of Secrets posted at Cocktail Party Physics. She points out some lovely art inspired by cloud chambers, delves into the history of these original subatomic particle detectors, and talks of the multifaceted talent of Donald Glaser. This Nobelist not only developed the bubble chamber, but, bored by the increasing automation involved in particle physics, went on to achieve great things in molecular biology and oncology; he later founded one of the earliest biotech companies,correctly foreseeing the explosion in applying the fruits of molecular biology research to industry, particularly medicine and agriculture. And when even that lost its novelty, Glaser moved into neurobiology, specifically studying the human visual system and its perception of motion and depth. Glaser also used photo-analyzing equipment he'd originally developed for his bubble chamber to identify species of bacteria via computer scanning, so he brought a bit of automation to his new field as well.

Let There Be Light! exclaims Brian Koberlein, and presents Fiat Lux posted at Upon Reflection. While the story of Isaac Newton splitting light into its constituent colours is famous, surely not everyone is au courant with all the details. For instance, Newton wasn't the first to split light with a prism. And why did the prism produce the rainbow? Brian points out that in Newton's time it was already well known that light passing through a prism would produce a spectrum of colors. It was generally thought that the color must somehow be contained within the prism glass, and when light passed through a prism it would be tinted various colors. Newton was able to clearly show this was not the case.

From Physics to Astronomy is not a massive leap, and so we can move right on to Becky Jungbauer's Truth Universally Acknowledged, which features a nice three-part write-up on Galileo, The Medici, and the Age of Astronomy. She begins Galileo Galilei wasn't just an Italian physicist, mathematician, astronomer, philosopher and heresy suspect (not to mention father of modern observational astronomy, modern physics, science, and modern science, that last one he was named by both Hawking and Einstein). He was also a friend of the Medici, the political Italian dynasty whose patronage of scientists and artists led to the Renaissance, and goes on to discuss some of the instruments that Galileo designed and developed, and sets his scientific achievements in the context of European culture in the 16th and 17th centuries.

What does a scientist do when he finds out that one of his best ideas has been independently obtained (and promoted) by another, far more famous, scientist? Dejection and frustration might prompt him to abandon his work. Or he could do as Ewan Cameron did when he found out that Linus Pauling also had the idea that Vitamin C could be help ameliorate the ravages of cancer. In spcoll's Pauling Blog we read the story of this fine researcher, who in later years recalled: Just as the idea evolved, I learned that Professor Linus Pauling had stated that vitamin C might be helpful for cancer patients. My first reaction was one of dismay, even defeat, but such a feeling did not last very long. I wrote immediately to Dr. Pauling and we have been close collaborators ever since.

Continuing to speak of disease: PalMD presents Captain of the Men of Death posted at White Coat Underground. This is a brief roundup of the history of the pneumococcus bacterium, which was known to live harmlessly in the nose and throat and only sometimes causes disease. Pneumoccocal disease was and is still a leading cause of disease and death, killing perhaps a million children per year. It causes ear and sinus infections, but also meningitis, and is the most common cause of pneumonia. In the past it was referred to as "the captain of the men of death" for its ability to claim so many.

Next up, folks, we have Greg Laden offering a comparative study on the dissonance in our minds when we encounter not-so-perfect copies of ourselves in Perfect Strangers at SEED Magazine.

And lastly, if you've ever wondered why it's better to whisk eggs in copper bowls and why milk is the best drink to kill spice, Gracie Turner is your portal to all the answers you seek in food chemistry. She presents 100 Great Videos to Learn About Food Science posted at Online Courses.org.

To conclude, I must point out that - for a limited time only! - the Royal Society (as you have all heard, I'm sure) has made freely available sixty classic papers from its Philosophical Transactions. This is part of the celebrations to commemorate its 350 years at the pinnacle of scientific endeavour. Check out the Trailblazing site, and note that at least one of the blogs in this carnival has been directly inspired by a 'classic' paper. A hat tip to the first person to identify the blog.

Please submit your blog article to the next edition of the giant's shoulders using the carnival submission form. Past posts and future hosts can be found on the blog carnival index page.

Thanks for all the contributions, folks. Happy Christmas, one and all, and a very Merry New Year!

Over at Sundry Translations and Other Tangentialia, I've just posted an article (translated from the original Russian) on Glaciations and the Earth's orbit. Please take a look and let me know what you think.

Oct 9, 2007

Farmer Suicides

There are differences: India is indigent and has too many people, Australia is prosperous and is underpopulated; both have booming economies that are bypassing some of their people. There are similarities: both countries suffer from agricultural problems, and reel from water scarcity. The result is the same: farmer suicides in these two disparate countries are among the highest in the world.

About a year ago, news articles started to appear in the Western press about Australian farmers taking their own lives. They had been faced with several consecutive years of drought. This year, it was far worse. Rain fell for the first time in May after an eleven-year-long dry period. Farmers planted their wheat, and encouraged by forecasts of favourable precipitation in September, sold up to a third of their harvest on the futures exchanges.

The rains didn't show, contrary to the bullish predictions by the Australian Meteorological Bureau. Wheat prices, in the interim, have doubled. The futures mature in December and the farmers have to find the money to buy the wheat on the open market to cover their bets. Ruin stares many of them in the face.

The Australian federal government is attempting a rescue, paying up to 150 thousand dollars to the farmers hit worst. In this, of course, they show a vast difference from their Indian counterparts. But the suicides, sadly, have continued.

A study by Siddhartha Mitra (Gokhale Institute of Politics and Economics, Pune) discusses reasons for the high suicide rates in the two countries. In India, lobbying causes diversion of scarce water resources to those with greater political clout (e.g. the sugarcane producers in Maharashtra outdo the cotton growers in Vidarbha). There is no safety net for farmers hit either by heavy debt servicing burdens, or falling commodity prices. These are the prime causes of suicide in the rural areas. In Australia, climate change causes most of the agricultural problems, but added to mix are social problems: shrinking farm employment, a high male to female sex-ratio outside the cities, higher divorce and separation rates, all of which cause increasing numbers of rural males to commit suicide.